GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Share of government expenditures in the GDPs are increasing virtually everywhere. Available data for developed countries indicate that beginnings this upward trend date back to mid-19th century. Interestingly, economic growth rates did not increase significantly over time despite increases expenditures. Low income today spend more than double what today’s economies were spending on average 1900. However, is helping them converge richer economies. Why then? This question might have global pertinence but due variety country-specific factors, it can be best studied a single country level. In article, focal interest Turkey. Five important variables affect from different angles evaluated regarding their contributions out-of-sample predictions using random forest methodology. Military estimated as primarily determining Turkey last fifty years, while tax collections happened second most factor affecting ups and downs around time-varying line. Per capita income, urbanization inflation also various ways.